Conflict Watch: A Weekly Assessment of the World’s Most Active Wars
This week’s global conflict landscape remains volatile, with major developments across Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Myanmar.
🇺🇦 Ukraine
The pace of events in Ukraine shows no sign of slowing. On 24 April, Russia launched its most intense assault on Kyiv since July 2024, deploying a barrage of missiles and drones that resulted in significant civilian casualties. The strike came amid a controversial U.S. peace proposal suggesting recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and freezing current frontlines in exchange for a ceasefire and potential sanctions relief—a proposal Ukrainian President Zelensky promptly rejected.
Adding to the turbulence, Lieutenant General Yaroslav Moskalik, a senior Russian military official, was killed in a car bombing near Moscow, an incident Russian authorities attribute to Ukrainian involvement. Amid these developments, Russia has intensified its military operations across multiple fronts, including Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk oblasts. In response, Ukraine claimed a successful airstrike on a Russian drone operations center near Tetkino in Russia’s Kursk region, reportedly killing up to 20 drone operators.
In a notable shift, former President Donald Trump publicly expressed rare skepticism regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions, questioning whether Putin was “just tapping me along,” and suggesting Russia may not be serious about ending the war. This marks a departure from Trump’s earlier more restrained stance toward Putin.
🇵🇸 Gaza
Gaza’s humanitarian crisis has worsened sharply. The UN World Food Programme announced on 25 April that its food stocks are completely depleted following Israel’s eight-week blockade, leaving over one million children at risk of famine. The blockade has halted the entry of humanitarian and commercial supplies.
Meanwhile, on 23 April, an Israeli airstrike targeted the Yaffa School in Gaza City’s al-Tuffah neighbourhood, which was serving as a shelter for displaced families, killing at least 23 people. Hamas has reportedly recruited approximately 30,000 new fighters as it leans more heavily on guerrilla tactics in response to Israeli operations.
Despite ongoing mediation by Arab states, ceasefire efforts have stalled. Hamas has expressed openness to a five- to seven-year truce, but refuses to agree to demilitarisation—a key Israeli demand. In a separate legal development, the International Criminal Court’s Appeals Chamber ordered a review of Israel’s challenge to the court’s jurisdiction over Gaza and the West Bank, marking a partial legal victory for Israel.
🇸🇩 Sudan
Sudan’s civil war continues to escalate into the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. Over 12 million people have been displaced, and nearly half the population—around 25 million—face acute hunger. Famine has been confirmed in at least 11 areas, including the Zamzam camp in North Darfur.
On the battlefield, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have reportedly regained control of over 430 locations across central and southern Sudan, including strategic sites in Khartoum. However, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) retain strongholds in the west. Politically, the RSF and allied groups have signed a charter in Nairobi announcing plans for a parallel government—a move that raises fears of further fragmentation.
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of Congo
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda signed a U.S.-brokered Declaration of Principles in Washington on 25 April, aimed at stabilizing eastern Congo and expanding U.S. access to critical minerals. While the agreement is a notable diplomatic effort, its success depends heavily on Rwanda halting its support for armed groups like M23—an issue that has derailed previous peace attempts.
Simultaneously, the DRC government and the M23-led Alliance Fleuve Congo agreed to a truce, following Qatar-mediated talks in Doha. Yet the fragility of the ceasefire remains evident given the deep-seated mistrust. Separately, the DRC has offered the U.S. greater access to its strategic minerals sector, historically dominated by China—a move that may open the country to new opportunities but also increases the risks of resource exploitation.
🇲🇲 Myanmar
Myanmar’s military junta extended its post-earthquake ceasefire until 30 April, following the devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake on 28 March. However, the ceasefire has proven largely symbolic. According to UN and ACLED data, the junta has continued military operations, including airstrikes and shelling, particularly in earthquake-affected regions. Between 28 March and 24 April, at least 207 attacks were recorded, with 73 occurring in areas hit hardest by the quake.
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