🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of Congo

Eastern Congo remained deeply unstable this week as clashes continued between M23-led Alliance Fleuve Congo forces and rival Wazalendo militias in South Kivu. Despite pressure from regional and Western actors, Kigali’s backing of M23 remains a critical variable, with Kinshasa and Rwanda now under U.S. pressure to finalise a peace accord by July—tied explicitly to access to Congo’s vast mineral reserves. The Congolese government, meanwhile, moved to strip former President Joseph Kabila of legal immunity, signalling a shift in the internal political landscape and raising the prospect of corruption investigations into his time in office. At the same time, Kinshasa signed a controversial revenue-sharing deal with Blackwater, aimed at undermining M23’s lucrative parallel taxation system in mineral-rich zones. With peacekeepers withdrawing and trust in mediation low, the region risks sliding deeper into a proxy conflict shaped by both rebel financing and regional mineral politics.

🇺🇦 Ukraine

This week saw a flurry of military and diplomatic activity in Ukraine. Russia announced a symbolic 72-hour ceasefire for early May—widely seen as a PR move and a tactical pause to reposition military assets ahead of the 9 May Victory Day parade in Moscow. Meanwhile, Ukraine and the U.S. finalized a landmark minerals investment deal to support postwar reconstruction, following tense negotiations. The agreement came as President Trump appeared to harden his stance on Putin, expressing doubts about the Russian leader’s willingness to pursue peace even after significant concessions. On the ground, clashes and drone strikes continued, and President Zelensky warned of Russian troop build-ups in Belarus that echo the staging patterns seen before the 2022 invasion.

🇵🇸 Gaza

The humanitarian toll in Gaza continues to grow, with Israeli airstrikes killing more than 150 people over the past week. Global condemnation intensified—particularly after a drone strike on a civilian aid ship off Malta, widely blamed on Israel. The incident drew comparisons to 2010, when Israeli forces attacked a flotilla carrying humanitarian supplies in international waters, killing ten activists. Such incidents continue to exacerbate commercial risks for companies perceived as closely aligned with Israel, as boycott campaigns against several Western brands accused of complicity gain momentum—particularly in Muslim-majority countries.

🇸🇩 Sudan

The war in Sudan continues to escalate. RSF forces shelled the presidential palace in Khartoum and captured the strategic town of al-Nahud, killing dozens and looting markets and homes. The move appears to be part of a broader advance toward El Fasher in North Darfur, a key government stronghold. While Abu Dhabi publicly claimed to have intercepted a weapons shipment intended for the army, the timing raised eyebrows—coming just as new scrutiny emerged over the RSF’s battlefield conduct and supply lines. The UAE has long-standing commercial and security ties with RSF leader Hemeti, and its logistical footprint in the Sahel remains difficult to separate from gold-linked interests. Meanwhile, the SAF continues to rely heavily on air power and defensive positions in the east, as the RSF consolidates control in the west. What is emerging on the ground is not just a civil war, but the functional partitioning of the country—with growing potential for regional destabilisation across Chad, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic.

🇲🇲 Myanmar

Myanmar’s post-earthquake ceasefire has proven largely performative. Over 120 junta-led attacks were recorded during the period, including confirmed airstrikes on at least 22 villages. The military continues to obstruct humanitarian relief, reportedly hoarding aid meant for quake-hit zones while local civil society groups attempt to fill the gap. International pressure intensified this week, with the UN calling for the release of all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi and former president Win Myint. Meanwhile, journalist Than Htike Myint was sentenced to five years under terrorism charges—part of a broader pattern of legal warfare against war correspondents and dissenting voices. As the junta’s battlefield dominance is increasingly challenged by coordinated rebel offensives, it is doubling down on information control and punitive deterrence, accelerating the collapse of media freedom and humanitarian access.